preložiť Five years after the pandemic, scientists assess the effect of lockdowns. Countries without them were often no worse off
During the covid-19 pandemic, countries took different paths in an attempt to protect their populations. Some opted for strict lockdowns, others relied on less restrictive measures. Five years since the first cases were detected, scientists have knowledge of the effectiveness of the measures - but it is questionable.
With the world stuck at home in March 2020 in the aftermath of the covid-19 pandemic, some countries decided to take a different path than the rest of the international community.
Most states put in place strict measures to restrict population movements, while others relied on voluntary behaviour, contact tracing and precautionary measures.
Five years later, scholars are trying to evaluate whether lockdown-free approaches have been effective. The results of several studies were summarised by the BBC news website.
Different approaches, similar results
Sweden was among the countries that did not implement lockdowns. Unlike its neighbours, Norway, Finland and Denmark, it relied on voluntary measures.
Studies show that Sweden had a higher number of excess deaths in the early phase of the pandemic, but that the difference has evened out in 2021 and 2022. This suggests that lockdowns in neighbouring countries may have only delayed the inevitable losses.
A similar case took place in Uruguay, which was initially praised for its low number of deaths without stringent measures. However, in subsequent years, the number of excess deaths skyrocketed, prompting the conclusion that the initial success may have been only temporary.
Economic and social impacts
One of the main arguments against lockdowns has been their economic consequences. Analyses show that Sweden came through the pandemic with less loss in GDP than its neighbours who introduced harsh measures. However, this approach had its downsides - high mortality rates in nursing homes and lack of protection for vulnerable groups.
In addition to the health and economic consequences, lockdowns have also affected mental health. Many people, especially the elderly and lonely individuals, experienced social isolation, which had long-term consequences.
On the other hand, even countries without lockdowns have not avoided psychological complications in their populations. In this type of pandemic policy, citizens were particularly stressed by uncertainty and the lack of firm rules.
How did the alternative strategies work?
Some countries, such as Taiwan and Japan, have avoided lockdowns through strict infection control through contact tracing and extensive testing. In Taiwan, thorough digital screening of residents' movements was key, which, combined with the rapid implementation of measures, helped minimize the number of deaths.
A good comparison of the effectiveness of the two types of measures can be made with the pair of countries Iceland and New Zealand, as they opted for diametrically opposed approaches.
New Zealand adopted a hard lockdown, while Iceland relied on targeted measures and a timely response by health authorities.
And the result? Surprisingly almost the same. Both countries had one of the lowest death rates from covid-19, according to global statistics. In New Zealand's case, it was 4,538 deaths for 2.6 million cases, while Iceland recorded 186 deaths for 210,000 cases. The economic consequences were also, given the situation, minimal.
The lockdown in this country worked at first
Slovakia's position was also questionable. However, there are studies which suggest that at least the first lockdowns had a positive effect on the mortality rate of the population.
As the National Bank of Slovakia stated in 2022, the initial measures associated with the testing could become an inspiration for other countries.
"As the data for Slovakia show, the combination of these measures proved to be effective, albeit only temporarily, as the measures were subsequently relaxed and testing was not repeated on a regular basis," the analysis says.
The first strict lockdown, introduced just after the start of the pandemic, was also particularly effective, according to private health consultancy firm Pažitný & Kandilaki Healthcare Consulting.
However, the consultants say Slovakia made a number of mistakes in later measures, particularly in that they came late and were chaotic.
Lessons for the future
In the long term, therefore, it is not clear that lockdowns were the best option for each country. The key is for countries to have clear strategies in place for future pandemic situations.
The emphasis should be on flexible measures, protection of vulnerable groups and balancing health, economic and social aspects.
Although the five years since the outbreak of the pandemic have yielded valuable insights, many of the long-term consequences of lockdowns, or the lack of them, are only just beginning to be understood. If the world finds itself in a similar situation again, governments' decisions should be based on the thorough analysis and experience that covid-19 has brought us.