preložiť Plans by a team of experts to end the war have become public. What could a ceasefire in Ukraine look like?
Details of a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine have become public. Experts from various countries have presented concrete proposals on what peace could look like and what would be key to keeping it.
Agreement on cessation of hostilities
After months of speculation, details of a possible ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia are becoming public, CNN Prima News reports. A document published by the New York Times details what a deal to end the fighting could look like. The document was produced during negotiations between representatives of the US, Russia and Ukraine that took place in Geneva. The extensive document was produced by a think tank called the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, which is supported by the Swiss government.
According to the experts, the future ceasefire must be firmly anchored, unlike the Minsk agreements. The main problem at the time was the absence of a clear definition of sanctions in the event of a breach of the agreement.
It also envisages the creation of a 10-kilometre buffer zone separating the two armies in the event of a cessation of fighting. The security would be supervised by members of foreign armies, British and French.
The mission would reportedly operate under a mandate from the UN or another international body.
Efforts to settle the conflict
Thomas Greminger, Director of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, who was involved in monitoring the ceasefire in Ukraine from 2017 to 2020, formed a team of experts in 2022 to address the current conflict following the Russian invasion.
Greminger reached out to representatives of international organizations and military commanders with negotiating experience, and also independently negotiated with experts from Ukraine, Russia, the U.S., and Europe.
These meetings were not official summits, but rather a form of informal talks where participants brought clear positions from their governments. The aim was to establish a channel of communication with Moscow and to discuss possible scenarios for a settlement of the conflict.
Although the results of this initiative are still uncertain, Greminger's efforts suggest that informal negotiations are still taking place behind the official scenes. These discussions have led to various agreements, such as the prisoner exchange or a temporary deal on Ukrainian grain exports across the Black Sea.
According to Greminger, the behind-the-scenes talks are a symbol of hope that a consensus could be found later on more general issues.
Challenges in negotiating a ceasefire
According to the security think tank's proposal, international observers should work with Russian and military officials to negotiate concrete steps such as the release of detainees, the demining of territories, or the creation of civilian corridors in high tension zones.
However, Samuel Sharap, a Russia analyst at the RAND Corporation, expresses skepticism about the feasibility of such a plan, particularly because of the extent of the border between Ukraine and Russia, which is five times longer than the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea. This is compounded by the quantity and sophistication of weapons possessed by both sides in the conflict.
Although Sharap is working on alternative proposals to monitor a possible ceasefire, such as sensors on drones, buoys or boats, he says an agreement between the two sides is still a long way off.
The West has been cautious since Putin claimed before the invasion began that he was not planning any attack on Ukraine, leading many to believe that international monitoring missions will not deter the Kremlin from further aggression.
Russia expert Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs believes that Russia will never agree to a plan that guarantees Ukraine's full independence and sovereignty.