Kubiš in ta3: Trump will pursue American interests harder than before. He may tear Europe apart

Donald Trump has moved back into the White House after a four-year hiatus. He took the oath of office and officially became the 47th President of the United States. We spoke to Petr Pellegrini's international policy adviser Ján Kubiš about how Trump's policies will affect the world, the European Union, the conflict in Ukraine and Slovakia.

America comes first for Trump

Trump's second term begins with a clear message - America First. "I have to say one thing - he didn't surprise me in any way," Kubiš summed up Trump's speech at the beginning of the Topic of the Day show.

According to him, it is not surprising that Trump again emphasises the US national interests. This policy has been the basis of his campaign in the past and will now be pursued even more consistently.

"Nothing surprising. This was his main thesis during his first term. America first, everything else after. Now he's going to amplify it," Kubiš thinks.

This means fundamental changes in US relations with Europe, as Trump has long criticised trade agreements, NATO members' military spending and climate commitments.

According to Kubiš, it is certain that Trump will seek a quick resolution of the conflict in Ukraine, and his strategy will depend on negotiations not only with Ukraine and Russia, but also with China, which has geopolitical influence on the conflict.

"Trump wants to be a peacemaker and end the war in Ukraine, but at the same time he will try to adjust relations with Russia so that the US emerges from this conflict as a stronger player," Kubiš commented.

The US and cooperation with the world

During the campaign, the incoming President announced the introduction of high tariffs on imports from China, which could reach up to 60-100% of the value of goods. This move could trigger a trade war that will not only affect US-China relations but also European economies, including Slovakia.

According to Kubiš, the EU will have to react in a united manner, otherwise there is a risk that Trump will "take Europe apart" and negotiate individually with individual countries.

"If the EU comes unprepared and disunited, Trump will take advantage of this and will set each partner according to his own rules," the former foreign minister warns, adding that if the EU is not united, it will pay the price.

Trump has also long criticised European countries' low defence spending and has demanded that NATO member states invest at least 2% of GDP in defence.

According to Kubiš, Trump will be uncompromising on this issue and countries that fail to meet their commitments can expect changes in alliance cooperation.

See related report.

A tougher and more uncompromising Trump

Trump's policies may also affect internal developments in the EU. He is expected to support more conservative governments in countries such as Hungary and Slovakia, which may weaken traditional European structures.

"The EU must find a common platform, otherwise Trump will weaken it and use it to his advantage," Kubiš said, adding that the Union must prepare for a new era of transatlantic relations.

One of the controversial points of Trump's policy is his stance on social and cultural issues.

He has clearly spoken out against gender and racial politics, stressing that he recognises only two genders - male and female. "I'm not going to say he's going to interfere in their internal affairs, but he will set a certain tone and he will certainly support the more conservative forces in many European countries that are on the descent today," he assessed. This stance may affect the US attitude towards international human rights agreements, which may cause tensions in some European countries.

According to Kubiš, Slovakia will have to clearly define its national interests and at the same time keep itself within a stable European framework. If Slovakia is not united within the EU, it may find itself in a disadvantageous position when negotiating with the US and other global players.

"Trump will pursue American interests harder than before. It is therefore crucial for Slovakia to be a strong part of the EU and NATO, otherwise we will be just a statistic in global politics," Kubiš concluded.

Speculation where and when Trump will come

There has been speculation in the media about a possible visit by Trump to Europe shortly after his inauguration. There is talk of him travelling to Hungary, Poland or even Slovakia, where he could meet not only Viktor Orbán, but also Robert Fico and Vladimir Putin.

Although this information has not yet been officially confirmed, nor has anyone ruled it out, foreign policy analysts say that such a meeting could signal a shift in transatlantic relations and a new US strategy in Europe.

"If such a visit were to take place and Slovakia were to be part of it, it could be diplomatically advantageous for our country," the presidential adviser on foreign affairs said.

You can watch the full segment of The Topic of the Day, hosted by Diana Štrusová, below.